Mittwoch, 22. Juni 2011

Shiller PE is bearish

I have seen the graph below in a presentation this week of David Darst of Morgan Stanley. According to the Shiller PE stocks are only to outperform in the next decade if this PE is substantially lower than its longterm average.
 

The shiller PE divides the average of the last 10 years earnings of the index  by the index and provides you a cyclically adjusted PE ratio. According to the graph the PE stands today at 24x and it is well above the longterm average of about 16.

Keine Kommentare:

Kommentar veröffentlichen