Donnerstag, 16. Juni 2011
Counting on Zombie Consumers
US consumers thirsting for more products?
Today's FT sports an article about the still over indebted US consumer by Morgan Stanley's fabulous Stephen Roach.
Debt had its peak 130% of disposable income in 2007 and decreased to 115%, still well above of the average of 75% of the period between 1975 to 2000. The savings rate low of 1.2% in 2005 has increased to 4.9% also below its 8% long term average .Obviously, the US is not in a position to enter in a consumer driven growth path with so much need to save anytime soon. Mr Roach then critizes the Keynesian stimulus policy for encouragement for renewed reckless consumer spending. He reckons that the US needs 3 to 5 years to fix the household debt problem, and hence, there is no quick fix!
I completely agree with his projection of 3- to 5 years to "fix" the US consumer. However, Mr Roach forgets the savings paradoxon (or paradox of thrift) usually taught in 101 economics, which basically states that in an economy with high spare capacity (i.e. high unemployment as in the US today) increased savings lead to a further contraction of the economy. Also, keep in mind that according to US laws states and municipalities have to balance spending with income (taxes), which leads to a decreased budget in a recession! Hence, increased spending on federal level has to implemented to avoid this contraction, although I wouldn't give the funds to Wall Street banks with the expectation that it trickles down to Main Street eventually!
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