Montag, 13. Februar 2012

Guru Buffet's Upcoming Shareholder letter


Fortune published on February 9th, 20112 an adapted version of his upcoming annual shareholder letter of my guru Warren Buffet. I think following points are worth considering:

  • Risk: not the fluctuation of market value as Wall Street sees it, but loss of purchasing power is the real risk.
  • Thus, cash is risky since you need today $7 to buy what was worth $1 back in 1965.
  • U.S. Treasury bills paying 5.7% interest wouldn't get you anywhere since you need to pay taxes and have to offset inflation. You barely maintain your purchasing power.
  • Although gold has increased in value he is not in favor of gold: Imagine you could choose between pile A consisting of all gold holdings today (a cube of with each side 68 feet), which does not generate any earnings, crop or anything or pile B the equivalent in all US farmland and 16 Exxon Mobils (world's most profitable company) and $1 trillion spare cash. Buffet would clearly go for pile B.
 Buffet shows following graph illustrating the points above:
Moreover, he adds, that when everybody is shouting "cash is king" go for stocks like Exxon Mobil, Coca Cola and IBM, all first class businesses.
Buffet outs him self as a contrarian by stating: "We heard "cash is king" in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard "cash is trash" in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort."

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