Fortune published on February 9th, 20112 an adapted version of his upcoming annual shareholder letter of my guru Warren Buffet. I think following points are worth considering:
- Risk: not the fluctuation of market value as Wall Street sees it, but loss of purchasing power is the real risk.
- Thus, cash is risky since you need today $7 to buy what was worth $1 back in 1965.
- U.S. Treasury bills paying 5.7% interest wouldn't get you anywhere since you need to pay taxes and have to offset inflation. You barely maintain your purchasing power.
- Although gold has increased in value he is not in favor of gold: Imagine you could choose between pile A consisting of all gold holdings today (a cube of with each side 68 feet), which does not generate any earnings, crop or anything or pile B the equivalent in all US farmland and 16 Exxon Mobils (world's most profitable company) and $1 trillion spare cash. Buffet would clearly go for pile B.
Moreover, he adds, that when everybody is shouting "cash is king" go for stocks like Exxon Mobil, Coca Cola and IBM, all first class businesses.
Buffet outs him self as a contrarian by stating: "We heard "cash is king" in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard "cash is trash" in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort."
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