Montag, 10. Januar 2011

Goldman Sachs very positive for 2011

On January 7th, they wrote in their Global Opportunity Asset Allocator:
  • An improved economic outlook
    Globally we expect 4.7% GDP growth in 2011 and 4.9% in 2012. In the US we recently increased our growth forecast to 3.4% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012. Policy tightening in China and the sovereign situation in Europe are risks to our positive view and likely to cause volatility, but we believe the strong global growth momentum will continue to dominate asset performance.
  • Reshuffling risk exposure in the near term (1-3 months) …
    On a 1-3 month horizon, we upgrade our small equity Overweight to a full Overweight, downgrade commodities to Neutral, and investment grade corporate credit to Underweight. We are also Underweight government bonds and, with the strongest conviction, cash. The changes reflect improvement in the global growth outlook, commodity prices which after the strong recent performance are close to our near-term forecasts, and the low yields available in both investment grade credit and government bonds. Within equities, we are Overweight US and Japan and Underweight Europe and Asia ex-Japan on a 1-3 months horizon; we reverse this ranking on a twelve-month horizon.
  • … and maintaining our strong pro-risk 6 to12-month position
    On a 6-12 month horizon our allocation is unchanged. Our highest conviction Overweight is equities, which we expect to benefit from strong earnings growth and attractive valuations. We are also Overweight commodities, where tightening demand/supply balances should support higher prices at this horizon. We are Neutral on corporate credit where we expect a limited, yet positive return for the year. We are Underweight cash, where the return potential is very low. Our biggest Underweight is government bonds, where we expect zero return over this horizon.
Now, that's much more positive than Morgan Stanley. But the biggest contrast is this "Weekly Market Comment" by John P. Hussman titled "Illusory Prosperity" - Ludwig von Mises on Monetary Policy.
He notes: "the Market Climate for stocks continued to be characterized last week by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been very hostile to stocks."

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